Although there is a proliferation of parties in Malawi only a handful are of significance in the presidential stakes. Many of the smaller parties are 'personality or patronage seeking' outfits. The first biggie, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) (Leader: John Tembo) is Dr Banda's old party. It has its strongholds in the centre, with localised pockets of fanatical support in the south and north. The second is President Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which, though it has areas of support in all regions, is a top-down party still to develop grass roots. The third big party is Bakili Muluzi's United Democratic Front (UDF) which, surprisingly, still has significant grassroots support, with pockets in the centre and north. The Alliance For Democracy (AFORD) (Presidential candidate: Dindi Gowa Nyasulu) is now only of significance in the northern region, where it will win some seats. The People's Progressive Movement (PPM) (Leader: Mark Katsonga) has thrown its lot in with President Mutharika's DPP, abandoning the 2004 Mgwirizano (Alliance) with some of the smaller parties. Gwanda Chakuamba, after leaving Bingu's DPP, has formed a new party, The New Republic Party (NRP). He has vacillated between supporting Muluzi and Mutharika. Uladi Mussa's Maravi People's Party (MPP) despite the bad blood between Mussa and his former colleagues in the DPP, has so far survived. It is an unknown quantity. The small parties will provide support fodder for whichever big three or two presidential candidates stand.

A young independent candidate, John Nyondo, has generated some excitement among the youth but is unlikely to get anywhere. In the context of a 50/50 gender outcome in the elections, the presidential candidature of Loveness Gondwe, and her running mate Beatrice Mwale under the New Rainbow Coalition (NRC) has also generated some excitement. Although Gondwe will get some headlines, she is unlikely to win a significant number of seats. AFORD will blunt her impact both nationally and in the north.

Over the last five years the personality bases of all three main parties - and absence of ideology - have become even more glaringly obvious. Take the MCP. John Tembo's running mate is Brown Mpinganjira, formerly of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the UDF. The two were mortal enemies during the 1991-1994 transition; the MCP wanted some votes from the Lomwe third of the southern region. Bingu wa Mutharika, against popular expectation of a northern running mate, chose Joyce Banda, formerly of the MCP and UDF, and a lady from the south. Bingu, having earlier delivered in the areas of agriculture, infrastructure, economic growth and food security, has seen his government lose direction. Corruption and poor law and order continue, and robberies are now a daily occurrence.

Right until the 20th March the UDF was still waiting to see if its leader, Muluzi, who had chosen a light-weight Clement Stambuli as a running mate, would be allowed to run. Till then Mutharika had failed to find a way of preventing Muluzi's comeback. In February Muluzi was finally charged with corruption. An African Union delegation, including Joachim Chissano, visited Malawi as a "conflict prevention measure" to "ensure peaceful elections". Some suggested that the AU was hoping Muluzi would stand down voluntarily. Finally, on the 20th, the Malawi Electoral Commission decided not to allow Muluzi to stand. However, Muluzi decided to appeal ------.

My prediction? Sitting presidential candidates always have the advantage of patronage and resources. If Mutharika, who has already appropriated the name Ngwazi, and Joyce Banda are prepared to spend a fortune on galvanizing the female (mbumba) vote and persuading the long suffering Malawians that he will address problems affecting the rural areas (like food insecurity, unemployment, poor schools and health facilities), then Bingu/Joyce have a good chance of winning. They also need to supply adequate electricity and water for industrial growth to keep the support of the elites that initially gave strong support. They, we assume, have tactics to garner enough votes in the centre and north.

But can Mutharika, who has failed to tame Muluzi, outwit the combined efforts of Tembo and Mpinganjira? Some consider that he would need Peter Mandelson seconded to his campaign for that.

Scotland-based Malawian, John Lwanda, is a medical doctor, writer, and book publisher.