In 1990, in the manuscript of my novel The Second Harvest, I had it that the political impasse in Dzikonyika was sorted by an Army mutiny and a National Consultative Council; a solution the publisher's reviewer described as 'far-fetched'. By 1990, many of us knew that change was coming to Malawi although its exact nature was not clear. However, we, as writers, took a stab at the solutions. Most remain unpublished and mine would have remained thus had not a mad patient not stabbed me. The realization that I nearly died a coward resurrected my long suppressed writing career.

In 1992 - 93, in real life, a scenario very similar to the one I had suggested was played out when Malawi's President for Life, Dr Banda was 'sorted' by Operation Bwezani and the subsequent activities of PAC and NCC.

Today, justifications still abound for writing about Malawi: famine, poor schools, HIV/AIDS, a failing economy, regressing standards of living, and closing factories. Let me therefore, as we hurtle headlong towards 2004 without a definite conclusion to the Third Term debate, offer once more my writer's prediction. Only those interested in deceiving a popular president can justify muzzling journalists and writers and spending huge fortunes on people who have previously betrayed Malawi while millions starve. Attempts at muzzling people's voices inevitably lead to new harvests.

As of now, because of the opposition of the majority of Malawians, the donors who, literally, fund Malawi, the churches and the crucial business sector, a Muluzi Third Term seems unlikely. Like Banda before him the President has become trapped, perhaps terminally, by the selfish interests of his own close elite advisers. But politics is the art of achieving the impossible. And who knows, Muluzi may yet succeed.

Civil rights campaigners, church groups and others who oppose tyranny often get imprisoned by the modalities and games of constitutionalism and process. Ordinary people, though impotent, do not seem to have the same problems of vision. In the song, Go konko! The dilemma of a busload of passengers who clearly see the driver driving them into the ditch is painted.

Tikupitaku kuli dzenje, tingaonongeke!
We are heading for a ditch, we may be injured!

If I were ready to publish my Third Harvest my solution would be simple. It would involve the setting up of a National Second Transition Committee (NSTC) to thrash out the modalities for the orderly retirements for Muluzi and other senior UDF, MCP and AFORD politicians like Chihana, Tembo, and Chakuamba and for enabling fresher, and perhaps more progressive and pragmatic elements in these parties to usher in a new democratic era.

In detail, this National Second Transition Committee (NSTC) would have the functions of enabling:

1. National reconciliation to prevent political violence during the transitional 2004 elections.
2. The working out ways of removing chameleon patrimonial veteran politicians who have no new ideas but have slid from party to party for reasons of money.
3. The incorporation of Truth and Reconciliation functions to bring people involved in current and previous political violence to some account.
4. Additions [not amendments] to the Malawi Constitution to ensure that the political process becomes less dependent on informal funding.
5. A dignified presidential retirement and the establishment of a tradition of presidential retirement.
6. The minimization of post-transition, politically inspired trials which drain resources from education, health, and other social sectors but serve the acquisitive interests of those in power.
7. The introduction of new and developmental rather than patrimonial ideas into Malawi politics.
8. The introduction of a stronger traditional authority role ( a Senate even) in Malawi politics. Contrary to elite discourse traditional authority has provided rural Malawi with continuity and stability in the face of severe social, economic and political shocks.

The process, as in South Africa, would involve some degree of compromise, but not to the extent that was seen during the 1993 - 94 transition.

But, given current tussles between the ruling elite, opposition and the elements of civil society, who would initiate this debate? The principles of NEPAD, international cooperation and common humanity dictate that where ordinary people are suffering as a result of wanton self-interested politicking and can see that the bus drivers are heading towards a ditch - it is in the interests of donors, academics, civil society leaders, including religious leaders, to lead such initiatives. Is it not said that we reap what we sow? Like the passengers in the Go konko! bus the people of Malawi may need someone to warn the drivers. This Third Harvest type of initiative (NSTC) may just save Malawi from a Sierra Leone scenario. You read it in Malawi Update first.