An IMF Staff Mission visited Malawi at the beginning of March. It reported very positively on the economy, saying that the Government had kept its side of last July's bargain which enabled the Fund to lift its restrictions on money flowing to Malawi at that time. Since then the government has put in place systems to restrict unbudgeted expenditure, and has implemented its policy of zero-tolerance of corruption. Overall Malawi's economy is growing by about 5%, and though inflation is high at 14% it is expected to decline to around 11% by the end of the year.

However, the spectre at the feast is the impact that the recent "dry spell" (their word) will have on agricultural output and on the budget. The IMF says that their projected figures for growth and inflation "may need to be revised" to take account of the harvest. Once again the 'silent tsunami' raises its head.