Arrests: what do they mean?

It has been said that you can tell an African President's agenda, whether economic or political, by his first arrests. In Bingu's case we have to 'except' the arrest of Friday Jumbe and other UDF ex-ministers in connection with alleged corruption. Given the anti-corruption sentiments current after the elections Bingu had no choice but to act. His own first arrests were the 'alleged Sanjika plotters', Harry Thomson et al. As the plotters were quickly 'pardoned', commentators saw 'the politics of 'Muluzi marginalisation' at work. In 1994 Muluzi himself had used the Mwanza Trial against Banda and Tembo to good effect; it kept the Human Righters busy while he was aggressively and ruthlessly building his patronage base.

Ghosts

If the 'Sanjika plotters' were a diversionary political ploy, the arrest of two of the most effective journalists in Malawi - Mabvuto Banda of the Nation & Ralph Tenthani of the BBC and the Vice President's spokesman, Horace Nyaka - this week is not. The three are accused of disseminating a false story about the President being afraid of ghosts haunting the New State House - Dr Banda's folly - in Lilongwe.

It was alleged that religious leaders had been asked to pray for the exorcism of the ghosts. The arrests may expose the politics; if religious leaders do indeed rush to pray for the removal of the ghosts, then the story was true. Cynics have advised religious leaders to stay away: why pray for a 'man of the people'- who has chased Parliament from a large sensible site; wants to live in a 100 room palace alone; wants the donors and Malawi tax payers to pay for another large building - when there are at least three other suitable presidential palaces already?

The Vice President

The arrest of the Vice President's spokesman underlines the rift between Mutharika and VP Chilumpha. The two have never seen eye to eye since 1993 when Chilumpha led a group within the UDF which prevented Mutharika from standing against Muluzi. The rift between the president and his VP has weakened the centre of government. Most government ministries have two wings - an obvious Presidential one and a covert Vice Presidential one. This has consequences for strong effective government and - as Chilumpha is a Muluzi supporter - also has consequences for the anti-corruption drive against the former Muluzi administration, should the president, who is past 70, become infirm.

A more likely cause for the ghost story - given that its source has been alleged as the arrested VP press spokesman - is the fact that Bingu, who is known to have an extremely thin skin and does not tolerate criticism well, over-reacted to the story because of its 'Macbeth-ian' overtones. The ghost story has been linked to the alleged liking by the new president for good living, fine wine and whisky, a story that journalists and civil servants have been tattling, but not printing, since the president's trip to Taiwan.

Patronage Building

Those who know and have worked with Bingu report that he can be tetchy, short-tempered and has an egotistical streak like Banda. He does not suffer fools gladly and has Banda's liking for 'yes men'. He has already taken to telling journalists how to do their jobs. His promises are unraveling and the strategy for his new party, the DPP, is straight out of the Muluzi book of patronage building.

Despite being an economist, after nearly year into his presidency none of his economic miracles have begun to show. Most of his energies have been diverted by his tussle with Muluzi. And there lies the problem. Unless pressure groups stand up to Mutharika's regime Malawi will slide back into autocracy.

The Democratic Peoples Party

But most religious leaders and pressure groups are still grateful for the role Mutharika played in getting rid of Muluzi. Potential opposition figures are busy sliding to his Democratic People's Party (DPP). And economists are still giving him the benefit of the doubt. With nearly a year gone there are still few concrete results from the war on corruption. And as his own DPP enters the battle for patronage rights it is to be expected that Bingu will accelerate the process of making compromises with - as has been cruelly observed - ex-UDF, ex-MCP potential recruits to the DPP (already dubbed UDF team B or MCP team C). Gwanda Chakuamba, Hetherwick Ntaba, Uladi Mussa and a number of other ex-UDF, ex-RP, ex- MCP and 'ex-this that and the other' have already rolled into the yet to be registered DPP.

The Reserve Bank and the Small Credit Fund

Making these political compromises will not be difficult. Just as the UDF was built on the back of the MASAF (Malawi Social Action Fund), the DPP is said to be predicated on a K1 billion small business loan scheme, with DPP members getting preferential treatment. And just as Muluzi removed a potentially troublesome Reserve Bank Governor, Mutharika has done likewise. The new Reserve Bank Governor is Victor Mbewe, hitherto a highly respected banker. The new small loans will be disbursed with Reserve Bank say so and Mr Mbewe is still, at the time of writing, the chairman of Mutharika's small credit fund scheme on which he has promised to base his development programme.

The Need for Scrutiny

The feeling among critical observers is that, like the first Muluzi administration, Bingu's may be able to persuade donors and some religious and NGO groupings that economic and political processes are in a reformist and non-corrupt vein. The political undertones are not too encouraging in that regard. There are too many old guard or chameleon politicians more interested in safeguarding their harvests from the Muluzi era for that to work - unless more scrutiny than was applied to Muluzi is applied to the Bingu administration.

As reports of a poor harvest trickle in from a number of districts it is clear that Mutharika, even without the ghosts of new state house - real or imaginary - already has too many enemies and problems to deal with. His temperament is such that only a sustained, firm but friendly, critical engagement by opposition groups and the churches will ensure that his presidency delivers what it originally promised - a successful and corruption free Malawi.