The latest national census was published earlier this year and contained the startling information that Malawi's population has risen above 13 million. It was just over a decade ago that some forecasters were talking about a 'failed state' as Malawi collapsed under the pressures of population loss accelerated by HIV and AIDS. Now we face pressure in the opposite direction. What's happening?

The HIV infection rate is down to 12% on a national average, but much higher in the South (18%) and urban centres (25%). The latest studies indicate that the infection rates have declined significantly in rural areas and among adolescents: the latter down to 2-3%. Word has got out and behaviour is changing, at least in part. What no one expected was where the growth is occurring: among those with tertiary education living in stable relationships. This is not an issue of lack of information but of lifestyle choices. It seems many successful (mostly) men are on Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) but not telling their spouses. Imagine the devastation both physically and emotionally.

The other under- anticipated consequence of the AIDS pandemic is the behaviour of the survivors. There are hundreds of thousands of young people with either no parents or no proper adult role models. Young girls are having babies, lots of them, and often to serial 'fathers'. Education and vocational training are not available, there is no work, so girls seek solace in temporary liaisons with disastrous consequences.

The UN Population Fund also issued a warning to the Malawian Government. Based on the current fertility rate there will be 25 million Malawians by 2030, the majority living in cities. Lilongwe may have a population of 10 million in 20 years. Unbelievable, and other factors may intervene, but the projections are based on current data.

During Fall Fairs in Canada there is a simple game where 'gophers' keep popping out of holes. You can take a stick and beat them over the head until they rise no more. So, Thomas Malthus seems to pop up every generation as we try to confound his prediction that rapid population increase would overcome food production and there would be mass starvation. In the post-war era the 'green revolution' was the stick that countered the predictions of the doomsayers, but at a cost. The high use of petroleum based insecticides, pesticides and fertilizers has created another set of problems. Genetically modified seeds boost production but also with the loss of genetic adaptation built up over centuries.

The Government of Malawi has stared down the IMF and other economic gurus and heavily subsidized food production over the past four years. Preliminary evidence indicates it worked - Malawi has had surplus maize each year. But the issue is sustainability. How can the Government devote close to half of its budget to food subsidies? The money comes from somewhere and already we see the loss of funding to nursing colleges, less medicine in hospitals and the average class size in primary schools is now at 100. A severe fuel shortage has been crippling the economy for a month. There are several reasons: congestion at Beira, a weakening bridge at Tete, but the main issue is lack of foreign exchange. Too much forex is leaving the country for dubious economic benefit.

My responsibility these days is to direct the Blantyre Synod Health and Development Commission. BSHDC used to be called more modestly the 'Projects Office' and the interventions were mainly in the areas of Orphan Care, Literacy and Community Development. The latter has morphed into 'Livelihoods' and now constitutes our major programme. After a strategic review in 2008 we selected 4 areas for our work: livelihoods (which includes food security, water and sanitation, irrigation), Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC), gender and governance.

This year we received an unexpected boost when the Synod agreed to integrate the public health programme into BS'H'DC. We are also moving away from a project orientation where we come up with proposals and go searching for a donor. We are developing a 'programmatic' approach in which all 5 sectors of our work will be involved. In other words, we cannot design a livelihoods proposal without reference to health, OVC, gender and governance. Instead of a hierarchical organisation with the bwana on top, we are creating a 'flat' organisation in which 5 coordinators meet with the director and administrator on an equal footing.

We appreciate the support we receive through the Church of Scotland's World Mission Council, Child Survival in Malawi and Scottish Churches World Exchange. There are a lot of visitors from Scotland each year, many from Congregations and Presbyteries that have established partnership agreements with Malawian counterparts. Unfortunately, some of these visitors come and go without hearing anything about BSHDC - and we hear about various development projects of which we would like to know more.

There is an anti-institutional bias these days. People do not trust large organisations and want every penny of donor money to reach its target. I understand the motivation and it does bring people closer to the action. But the negative side is a patchwork quilt of many actors doing many uncoordinated and unsustainable things. It is not a question of either/or, but an appeal to friends to be aware of the good work we are implementing on behalf of all those who work and speak, and give and pray, that this wonderful little country could have the quality of life that matches the quality of its people. There is no one royal road, but I believe that BSHDC is moving in the right direction and will make a greater impact in future. Pay us a visit when next you visit Malawi.

Glenn Inglis, Director, BSHDC.
Glenn and Linda Inglis are mission partners with the Presbyterian Church in Canada. They arrived in Malawi in 1980 and have interspersed work in Malawi with congregational work in Canada. They are currently serving their third appointment to Blantyre Synod.